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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.21 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model