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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model