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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 16:25 O.co Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CIN
34.2%
OAK
65.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.203 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.085 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22
–
OAK 25
Projected margin: OAK by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CIN

Marcus Hardison DT Out Knee
Josh Shaw CB Questionable Groin
Darqueze Dennard CB Probable Groin
Carlos Dunlap DE Probable Illness
Leon Hall CB Probable Back
Michael Johnson DE Probable Knee
Emmanuel Lamur LB Probable Hamstring
Reggie Nelson S Probable Groin
Andrew Whitworth T Probable Back

OAK

Benson Mayowa DE Out Knee
Andre Holmes WR Probable Hand
Justin Tuck DE Probable Calf
Clive Walford TE Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 33
–
OAK 13

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:21 TD CIN (7:21) 32-J.Hill left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – OAK 0
  • Q2 09:33 FG CIN (9:33) 2-M.Nugent 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 10 – OAK 0
  • Q2 02:26 TD CIN (2:26) 32-J.Hill up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – OAK 0
  • Q2 00:12 TD CIN (:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – OAK 0
  • Q3 03:45 TD CIN (3:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 85-T.Eifert for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – OAK 0
  • Q3 01:30 FG CIN (1:30) 2-M.Nugent 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 33 – OAK 0
  • Q4 08:00 TD LV (8:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-M.McGloin pass short middle to 45-M.Reece for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – OAK 6
  • Q4 02:19 TD LV (2:19) (Shotgun) 14-M.McGloin pass short right to 45-M.Reece for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – OAK 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:43) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to CIN 36, Center-59-J.Condo. 24-A.Jones to CIN 41 for 5 yards (59-J.Condo).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (7:21) 32-J.Hill left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:45) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to CIN 31, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 36%

    (2:43) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 18%

    (13:41) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

    (9:33) 2-M.Nugent 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:29) #14 M.McGloin in at QB. 28-L.Murray up the middle to LV 45 for no gain (58-R.Maualuga).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:15) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to CIN 21, Center-59-J.Condo. 24-A.Jones to CIN 39 for 18 yards (59-J.Condo).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:18) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-37-C.Lewis-Harris.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:58) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to CIN 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (1:30) 2-M.Nugent 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 27%

    (14:28) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:47) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to LV 30, Center-46-C.Harris. 38-T.Carrie to LV 41 for 11 yards (59-E.Lamur).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 23%

    (11:54) (Shotgun) 14-M.McGloin pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree to CIN 46 for 4 yards (36-S.Williams).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 50%

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 14-M.McGloin pass short middle to 89-A.Cooper to CIN 25 for 14 yards (21-D.Dennard).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:29) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 38-T.Carrie to LV 45 for 11 yards (30-C.Peerman).