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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to CIN 36, Center-59-J.Condo. 24-A.Jones to CIN 41 for 5 yards (59-J.Condo).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.02 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model