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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.18 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model