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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:29) #14 M.McGloin in at QB. 28-L.Murray up the middle to LV 45 for no gain (58-R.Maualuga).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.04 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model