4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 33

What Actually Happened

(14:28) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +4.03 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.18 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model