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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 87

Cincinnati Bengals 33 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 38-T.Carrie to LV 45 for 11 yards (30-C.Peerman).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.44 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 45, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model