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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 14

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 2-M.Nugent 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model