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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to CIN 21, Center-59-J.Condo. 24-A.Jones to CIN 39 for 18 yards (59-J.Condo).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model