4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Saturday 2026-01-17 · 20:00 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SF
40.8%
SEA
59.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.239 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SEA on 8 more days rest than SF
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.214 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

SF

Fred Warner LB Out Ankle
Ji'Ayir Brown S Out Hamstring
Luke Gifford LB Questionable Quadricep
Dee Winters LB Questionable Ankle
Jacob Cowing WR Questionable Hamstring
Ricky Pearsall WR Questionable Knee

SEA

Josh Jones T Out Knee
Chazz Surratt LB Out Ankle
Elijah Arroyo TE Out Knee
Sam Darnold QB Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 6
–
SEA 41

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD SEA 18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs. SF 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 05:10 FG SEA (5:10) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 0 – SEA 10
  • Q1 01:55 TD SEA (1:55) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – SEA 16
  • Q2 12:01 FG SF (12:01) 18-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 3 – SEA 17
  • Q2 04:37 FG SF (4:37) 18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 6 – SEA 17
  • Q2 00:36 TD SEA (:36) 9-K.Walker left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 23
  • Q3 07:10 FG SEA (7:10) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 6 – SEA 27
  • Q3 02:28 TD SEA (2:28) 9-K.Walker left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 33
  • Q4 12:47 TD SEA (12:47) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 58%

    (11:21) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to SEA 43 for -3 yards (0-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), touched at SEA 43, ball out of bounds at SEA 43.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (5:10) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 90%

    (12:01) 18-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 5, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 63%

    (4:37) 18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 48%

    (12:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 42 for -14 yards (99-L.Williams).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (7:10) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Bourne (8-C.Bryant).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to SF 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 19 for 6 yards (32-V.Jones; 83-D.Young).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:30) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 21 for -2 yards (48-T.Knight).