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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 41 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 21 for -2 yards (48-T.Knight).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.82 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP