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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to SEA 43 for -3 yards (0-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), touched at SEA 43, ball out of bounds at SEA 43.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.24 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model