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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP