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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP