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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 17 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 5, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.81 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP