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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 24 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +3.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP