4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2025-01-26 · 15:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌨 Snow Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

WAS
39.1%
PHI
60.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.136 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
PHI 25
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

WAS

Samuel Cosmi G Out Knee
Jeff Driskel QB Questionable Illness
Daron Payne DT Questionable Knee
Javontae Jean-Baptiste DE Questionable Shoulder

PHI

Byron Young DT Out Hamstring
Britain Covey WR Out Neck
Cam Jurgens G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 23
–
PHI 55

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 32 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:01 FG WAS (8:01) 47-Z.Gonzalez 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – PHI 0
  • Q1 07:51 TD PHI (7:51) 26-S.Barkley left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – PHI 6
  • Q1 03:47 TD PHI (3:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – PHI 13
  • Q2 14:46 FG WAS (14:46) 47-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 6 – PHI 14
  • Q2 07:15 TD WAS (7:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – PHI 14
  • Q2 01:45 TD PHI (1:45) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-23-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. WAS 12 – PHI 20
  • Q2 00:43 TD PHI (:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – PHI 26
  • Q2 00:06 FG WAS (:06) 47-Z.Gonzalez 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 15 – PHI 27
  • Q3 09:04 TD PHI (9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 15 – PHI 33
  • Q3 05:07 TD WAS (5:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 21 – PHI 34
  • Q4 12:26 TD PHI (12:26) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – PHI 40
  • Q4 08:02 TD PHI (8:02) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – PHI 47
  • Q4 03:07 TD PHI (3:07) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – PHI 54

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 44%

    (11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at PHI 36 for 7 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 81%

    (9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PHI 23 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 94%

    (8:01) 47-Z.Gonzalez 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:26) (Punt formation) 10-T.Way pass deep middle to 82-B.Sinnott to PHI 46 for 23 yards (54-J.Trotter; 28-W.Shipley).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%

    (14:46) 47-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 63%

    (8:55) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 39%

    (2:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at WAS 14 for 31 yards (23-M.Lattimore).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:50) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 26, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-48-K.Blasingame.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:57) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 32, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 42 for 10 yards (41-C.Yankoff; 57-N.Bellore).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 53%

    (1:44) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 41 for 7 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 31 for -9 yards (3-N.Smith).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to WAS 37 for no gain (97-M.Ojomo).