4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 77

Washington Commanders 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 32, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 42 for 10 yards (41-C.Yankoff; 57-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model