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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.88 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP