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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at WAS 14 for 31 yards (23-M.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.39 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model