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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 43

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at PHI 36 for 7 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.23 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model