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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 28

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PHI 23 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean).

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model