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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 69

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (Punt formation) 10-T.Way pass deep middle to 82-B.Sinnott to PHI 46 for 23 yards (54-J.Trotter; 28-W.Shipley).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model