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Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CAR
40.2%
ATL
59.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.127 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR defense: +0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) has only 2 prior starts in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CAR

Amare Barno LB Out Shoulder
Jaycee Horn CB Out Hip
Josey Jewell LB Out Concussion
Lonnie Johnson S Out Shoulder
Robert Hunt G Questionable Knee
Miles Sanders RB Questionable Ankle
Xavier Legette WR Questionable Hip
Taylor Moton T Questionable Not injury related - resting player
A'Shawn Robinson DE Questionable Neck

ATL

Brandon Dorlus DE Questionable Abdomen
Darnell Mooney WR Questionable Shoulder
J.D. Bertrand LB Questionable Eye

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 44
–
ATL 38

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 38 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:12 FG ATL (11:12) 37-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CAR 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 07:07 FG CAR (7:07) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 10:53 TD CAR (10:53) 9-B.Young scrambles right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – ATL 3
  • Q2 05:34 TD ATL (5:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – ATL 9
  • Q2 02:55 TD CAR (2:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 6-M.Sanders for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – ATL 10
  • Q2 01:39 TD ATL (1:39) 7-B.Robinson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – ATL 16
  • Q2 00:08 TD ATL (:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 17 – ATL 23
  • Q3 10:47 TD CAR (10:47) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 23 – ATL 24
  • Q3 01:06 TD CAR (1:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 83-D.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 30 – ATL 24
  • Q4 09:55 TD ATL (9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 5-D.London for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 31 – ATL 30
  • Q4 04:09 TD CAR (4:09) 9-B.Young scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 37 – ATL 31
  • Q4 00:52 TD ATL (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 38 – ATL 37
  • Q5 03:18 TD CAR (3:18) 6-M.Sanders right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 44 – ATL 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (11:12) 37-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (7:07) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:48) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to ATL 42 for 2 yards (29-A.Evans).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 56%

    (1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.London [7-J.Clowney].

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:47) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:39) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (10:47) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 75%

    (6:18) 37-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (11:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end to CAR 11 for 1 yard (7-J.Clowney; 36-D.Richardson).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 26-A.Williams to ATL 32 for 19 yards (84-F.Franks; 82-T.Tremble). PENALTY on ATL-35-N.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 22.