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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 37-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model