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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model