Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 38 – Atlanta Falcons 38

What Actually Happened

(:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 26-A.Williams to ATL 32 for 19 yards (84-F.Franks; 82-T.Tremble). PENALTY on ATL-35-N.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.59 EP
64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -1.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model