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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.London [7-J.Clowney].

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.57 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model