4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model