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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(:47) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.35 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model