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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2024-12-29 · 20:20 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ATL
42.4%
WAS
57.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Jayden Daniels (WAS) +0.164 vs Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) +0.243 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
WAS 25
Projected margin: WAS by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ATL

Antonio Hamilton CB Out Quadricep
Kevin King CB Out Concussion

WAS

Dyami Brown WR Out Hamstring
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Hamstring
Jordan Magee LB Out Hamstring
Tyler Owens S Out Ankle
Andrew Wylie T Out Groin
Marcus Mariota QB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Jonathan Allen DT Questionable Pectoral

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 24
–
WAS 30

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:37 TD WAS (9:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [3-J.Bates]. ATL 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 05:12 TD ATL (5:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-B.Robinson. 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – WAS 7
  • Q2 04:27 TD ATL (4:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – WAS 7
  • Q2 00:06 FG ATL (:06) 37-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 17 – WAS 7
  • Q3 07:19 TD WAS (7:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – WAS 13
  • Q4 13:08 TD WAS (13:08) (No Huddle) 36-C.Rodriguez left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – WAS 20
  • Q4 04:35 FG WAS (4:35) 47-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. ATL 17 – WAS 24
  • Q4 01:23 TD ATL (1:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – WAS 24
  • Q5 02:45 TD WAS (2:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 24 – WAS 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (9:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [3-J.Bates].

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:00) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to ATL 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 26-A.Williams to ATL 29 for 13 yards (38-K.Seymour; 39-J.Reaves).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:59) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to WAS 6, Center-49-L.McCullough. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 6. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 22 yards (51-D.Malone; 53-N.Landman).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:00) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to ATL 18, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Forrest, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 18.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (:06) 37-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (9:22) (No Huddle) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels right end ran ob at ATL 12 for 4 yards (3-J.Bates).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to WAS 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 56%

    (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 26-J.McNichols to ATL 33 for 6 yards (3-J.Bates).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 16 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to WAS 17, Center-49-L.McCullough. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 36 for 19 yards (26-A.Williams; 40-J.Bertrand).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (4:35) 47-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 28%

    (2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London pushed ob at WAS 19 for 31 yards (20-Q.Martin).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (1:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:50) 10-T.Way punts 61 yards to ATL 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 26-A.Williams to ATL 19 for 10 yards (35-P.Butler).