Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 55

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to ATL 18, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Forrest, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.70 EP
75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model