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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 16

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (No Huddle) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels right end ran ob at ATL 12 for 4 yards (3-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.12 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model