Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Washington Commanders 14

(5:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to WAS 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.89 EP
65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model