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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:06) 37-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model