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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 39

Washington Commanders 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 26-J.McNichols to ATL 33 for 6 yards (3-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model