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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 71

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to ATL 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 26-A.Williams to ATL 29 for 13 yards (38-K.Seymour; 39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model