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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🥶 Cold Spread -4.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

PHI
52.0%
WAS
48.0%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS): +0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 26
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

PHI

Britain Covey WR Out Neck
Bryce Huff DE Out Wrist
Sydney Brown S Questionable Concussion

WAS

Jonathan Allen DT Out Pectoral
Jeremy Chinn S Questionable Concussion
Zach Ertz TE Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 33
–
WAS 36

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:18 TD PHI (11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 07:11 TD PHI (7:11) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – WAS 0
  • Q1 03:16 TD WAS (3:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 80-J.Crowder for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – WAS 6
  • Q1 02:29 TD PHI (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – WAS 7
  • Q2 06:51 TD WAS (6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – WAS 13
  • Q3 11:42 FG PHI (11:42) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 24 – WAS 14
  • Q3 03:14 FG PHI (3:14) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 27 – WAS 14
  • Q4 13:37 TD WAS (13:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – WAS 20
  • Q4 09:18 TD WAS (9:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. PHI 27 – WAS 27
  • Q4 03:53 FG PHI (3:53) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 30 – WAS 28
  • Q4 02:02 FG PHI (2:02) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 33 – WAS 28
  • Q4 00:10 TD WAS (:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 33 – WAS 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 27%

    (14:15) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard to WAS 49 for no gain (19-J.Sweat; 90-J.Davis).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:24) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 36 for 6 yards (58-J.Magee). PENALTY on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 30.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%

    (10:36) 10-B.Mann punts 39 yards to WAS 4, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 58%

    (8:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PHI 34 for 5 yards (98-J.Carter).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:01) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to WAS 24, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:14) 10-T.Way punts 43 yards to PHI 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:00) 10-B.Mann punts 36 yards to WAS 28, Center-49-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for 5 yards (21-S.Brown).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 47%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at WAS 38 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (11:42) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 19 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (3:14) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 52%

    (:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PHI 12 for 29 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:17) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 13, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:39) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 47 for 4 yards (0-M.Sainristil; 20-Q.Martin).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 29%

    (6:10) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-A.Brown to WAS 35 for 15 yards (4-F.Luvu).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 74%

    (3:53) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

    (2:02) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.