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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-B.Mann punts 36 yards to WAS 28, Center-49-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for 5 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.44 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP