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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 43

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 10-B.Mann punts 39 yards to WAS 4, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP