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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 39

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PHI 34 for 5 yards (98-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.86 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model