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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 30 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.83 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model