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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(6:10) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-A.Brown to WAS 35 for 15 yards (4-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.60 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model