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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 43

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at WAS 38 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.91 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model