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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Monday 2024-12-23 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 14.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NO
20.5%
GB
79.5%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.166 vs Jake Haener (NO) -0.443 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: +0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 18
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NO

Derek Carr QB Out Left Hand
Alvin Kamara RB Out Groin
Bub Means WR Out Ankle
Chris Olave WR Out Head
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR Questionable Chest

GB

Javon Bullard S Out Ankle
Quay Walker LB Out Ankle
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Knee
Corey Ballentine CB Questionable Knee
Luke Musgrave TE Questionable Ankle
Evan Williams S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 0
–
GB 34

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:45 TD GB (8:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-D.Davis]. NO 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 11:47 TD GB (11:47) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 06:32 TD GB (6:32) (No Huddle) 30-C.Brooks up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – GB 20
  • Q3 07:08 FG GB (7:08) 17-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. NO 0 – GB 24
  • Q4 07:17 FG GB (7:17) 17-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. NO 0 – GB 27
  • Q4 02:50 TD GB (2:50) 31-Em.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – GB 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 38%

    (5:44) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to GB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at GB 8.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 38%

    (15:00) 10-J.Love up the middle to NO 43 for 2 yards (90-B.Bresee).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 65%

    (12:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to NO 14 for 21 yards (14-K.McKinstry).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:32) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to GB 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:57) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:20) 43-M.Hayball punts 48 yards to GB 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 60%

    (7:08) 17-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 20%

    (11:57) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to GB 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%

    (7:17) 17-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:52) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Pettis (39-Z.Anderson). PENALTY on GB-96-C.Wooden, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 33.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 52%

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at NO 6 for 34 yards (0-U.Amadi).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 24%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short middle to 81-K.Austin.