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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to GB 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.87 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model