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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to NO 14 for 21 yards (14-K.McKinstry).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.77 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model