4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 34

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short middle to 81-K.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.73 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.51 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model