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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 27 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at NO 6 for 34 yards (0-U.Amadi).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.93 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model